CHAPTER 4

THE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
DEVISED AND EMPLOYED TO SERVE A CANADIAN "WHOLE NATION" CHURCH PLANTING STRATEGY

    The following research model was devised and employed to 

provide comprehensive research on the location and languages 

of areas in Canada requiring the planting of an evangelical 

church, also the number of new churches needed to serve each 

location and language group to serve the Canadian "whole 

nation" strategy.

A. The Research Methodology

1. The Method Employed in Locating and Recording Existing Canadian Churches
Letters outlining the objectives of the research and their value to the individual denominations were mailed to the denominational offices of all known Trinitarian churches requesting:
1. the mailing addresses, including postal code, of all congregations under that denomination's care, 
2. the primary and secondary language in which each congregation normally serves their community, and
3. any mission or preaching point of a given congregation, the meeting location of each mission, including postal code, and the primary and secondary languages used in that mission.
A sample copy of this initial letter may be found as Appendix 2.
Followup letters and phone calls were also used where needed to secure the information. In a few instances the information was refused - in one case in the belief that my effort was a front for a government agency seeking to harass the church. The author believes, however, that by this means he received 90% of the requested data for the period January to August, 1989.
Microsoft Disk Operating System compatible computers containing data entry templates using the Ashton-Tate Corporation tradename "Dbase IV" software were prepared. Approximately 50 church data entry volunteers were recruited and trained and supervisors selected. Data entry, proof-reading, and corrections were made between September and December of 1989. During the data entry phase churches were distinguished by code as being "mainline," "evangelical," "Catholic," or "Orthodox or other eastern communions," according to the self understanding of each responding denomination. Data entry codes were also assigned to language groupings. The languages and their data entry codes may be found in Appendix 3.

2. The Method Employed in Comparing Ethnic Church Locations with Existing Ethnic Population Groups
Statistics Canada asks one of five Canadians in a periodic census the question: "What language does the head of this household normally speak when at home?" Responses to this question are tabulated by the government in several standard geographic categories. Those categories in which "home language" data are preserved which are relevant to our study are:

a) provinces and territories (12 nationally).
b) census divisions within each province and territory (266 nationally).
c) census metropolitan areas within census divisions are higher density urban areas, usually cities with population exceeding 10,000 persons (139 nationally).
d) census sub-divisions within census divisions (6,009 nationally of which 712 reported no human population in 1986).
Information for 111 government recognized Canadian languages, with the numbers of those who spoke each language at home by the above standard geographic categories, was purchased from Statistics Canada, delivered on magnetic tape, "massaged" to meet the technical requirements of Dbase IV, downloaded from a mainframe computer at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, British Columbia, and added to the church database described in the section above.1
Statistics Canada was then approached for a custom linkage between the church mailing address postal codes we had entered into our church database and the standard geographic categories of province, census division, census metropolitan area, and census sub-division for which we had received 1986 Statistics Canada "home language" data responses.

3. The Method Employed in Determining Regional "Population-to-Existing Church" Ratios by Language Group
The church database formed by the means described above was then sorted for denominational type, language spoken, and geographic region: province, census division, census metropolitan area, and census sub-division.
By this means a ratio was calculated between the population of each ethnic group in a given region of the nation and the number of churches currently seeking to reach that language group in that geographic region.

4. The Method Employed in Determining the Number of New Churches Required by Region in a Given Language Group
Reports were then generated by province, census division, census metropolitan area, and census sub-division in which the number of existing churches currently speaking a given language were divided into the number of persons speaking that language at home in a given region, to produce the population to church ratio for that language group and region, and the number of churches already ministering in that language subtracted from the total number of churches required to produce a given population to church ratio . The result of this calculation in each case indicated the number of new churches which must be planted in that region to achieve a given population to church ratio.
This mathematical sorting was done on the complete church database indicating the number of new Trinitarian churches required to achieve a given population to church ratio for each language group or region. A second sort was completed with a database containing only evangelical churches, showing the number of new evangelical churches required to achieve a given population to evangelical church ratio for each language group and region. Similar information could be provided for mainline denominations, the Roman Catholic Church, or any other grouping. This study was devoted to evangelical churches.

5. What is the Desired "Population-to-Church" Ratio to Adequately Evangelize a Community and Complete the Great Commission?
The question of what population-to-church ratio would be adequate to evangelize a given region or language group is an important one. 
Certainly every people group in Canada must be reached by an active, doctrinally sound, evangelizing church speaking their mother tongue.
Donald McGavran spoke of his dream of having 10 Christians actively witnessing to Jesus Christ in every community of 500 persons. This represents at least one "house church" for each town or village.

James Montgomery of Dawn Ministries states their

conviction that [the Great Commission] is being accomplished when the whole Church of a whole nation is committed to reach the goal of seeing Christ become incarnate in every group of 500 to 1,000 citizens in every village and neighbourhood and for every class, kind and condition of man. This means having at least one evangelical congregation sharing Christ within easy access of every person in the country.2

	The number of lost souls any one church can effectively 

reach with the gospel of the Lord Jesus Christ is limited by 

nature to three hundred in rural areas, five hundred in 

standard suburban communities, and perhaps one thousand in 

densely populated urban centers.
	Consider that in China today approximately 15 million Muslims have built 43,000 mosques.3  That is one mosque for each 348 Moslems. A higher ratio would adequately serve Moslems alone, but would be insufficient to proselytize non-Moslems. 
Although in some Saskatchewan communities in Canada our research found the population to church ratio to be 300:1, unchurched people remain. In one sense churches are like bibles. There are many available in the world, and one would at times think there are enough: however there appear always to be people without either. Therefore we must conclude that there are not enough.
	Thus I determine the ideal population to church ratio to accomplish the Great Commission might be in the 1000:1 to 500:1 range. The research underlying this dissertation, however, found the current population to evangelical church ratio to be only 3,391:1.
	Canadian evangelicals have simply not established new congregations rapidly enough to keep up with Canada's population growth. What an immense task remains for the church of Jesus Christ! Our goal of establishing one evangelical church for every two thousand Canadians by AD 2000 is but a step towards our ultimate objective of evangelism.

B. An Overview of Existing Churches and Missions in Canada

1. Churches and Missions
How many churches and missions are currently ministering in Canada?
"Missions" for the purposes of this study are defined as new church plants or older congregations or preaching points which continue to require financial subsidy.
	"Churches" are defined as financially self-supporting and therefore expected to continue in ministry for some time. 
A summary of the totals of churches and missions ministering in all languages, regions, and denominational traditions in Canada as of mid-1989 is depicted in Table 1.

Table 1: 

"Churches and Missions in Canada"

Existing Churches in Canada: 19,322       89.7%
Existing Missions in Canada:  2,221       10.3%
		   				Totals: 21,543      100.0%

2. Church Tradition
	In considering the number of congregations currently ministering nationally it must be remembered that a wide variety of churches historically considered Trinitarian are included in the above table. Not all Trinitarian churches are active, doctrinally sound, or evangelistic. Church leaders, however, were asked whether they considered the tradition of their church to be "mainline," "evangelical," "Catholic," or "Orthodox." Granting the limitations of such categories, a breakdown of the number and major traditions of Canadian Trinitarian churches and missions by theological tradition is depicted in Table 2.

Table 2:

"Total Churches and Missions by Church Tradition"

		Mainline:				   7,608       35.3%
		Evangelical:				7,378       34.2%
		Catholic:			      6,276       29.2%
		Orthodox:				     281        1.3%
				                 21,543      100.0%

3. Provinces and Territories by Church Tradition
Each province and territory demonstrates a wide variety of relative strengths and weaknesses as to historic church traditions and population to church ratios. Table 3 shows the relative strength of historic church traditions in the provinces and territories of Canada.

Table 3: "Church Traditions by Province and Territory"

  				  Mainline Catholic Evangelical Orthodox  Total

Newfoundland     419       234          291       1     945
PEI               91        59           60       0     210
Nova Scotia      607       253          476       3   1,339
New Brunswick    329       260     		 402   	  1     992
Quebec			  361		 1,900			 496      33   2,790
Ontario			2,987		 1,379        2,398     106   6,870
Manitoba			  560			472			 464  	 27   1,523
Saskatchewan	  746		   664			 516		 37   1,963
Alberta			  714			541			 983      51   2,289
British Columbia 723       459        1,245      22   2,449
Yukon 				17			 26			  18		  0      61
NWT               45        38		     29		  0     112
                -----     -----        -----     ---  ------
Totals:		    7,608     6,276        7,378     281  21,543
Percentages:	 35.3%     29.2%        34.2%    1.3%    100%

Table 4 shows the relative strength of churches and missions of all historic Trinitarian traditions by province and territory relative to population to church ratios.  

Table 4: 

"Population-to-Trinitarian-Church Ratios 
by Province and Territory"

Area           Number of  Percentage  Population-to-Church
               Churches   of Total    Ratio (1989)
------------------------------------------------------------
Newfoundland      945        4.4%      597 people per church
PEI               210        1.0%      595 people per church
Nova Scotia      1339        6.2%      645 people per church
New Brunswick     992        4.6%      707 people per church
Quebec           2790       13.0%     2313 people per church
Ontario          6870       31.9%     1310 people per church
Manitoba         1523        7.1%      689 people per church
Saskatchewan     1963        9.1%      507 people per church
Alberta          2289       10.6%     1022 people per church
BC               2449       11.4%     1163 people per church
Yukon              61        0.3%      381 people per church
NWT               112        0.5%      464 people per church
                -----      ------     ----
CANADA          21543      100.0%     1161 people per church

4. Canada by Census Division Showing Relative Trinitarian

      Church Strength by Population-to-Church Ratios
	Due to their physical length, the tables showing this data are appended as Appendices 4 and 5. 	Appendix 4: "Census Divisions in Canada in Descending Order of Population-to-Trinitarian Church Ratios" shows the relative urgency of new church planting in Canada. Those census divisions at the top of this table represent areas in greatest need of new church planting.
   Appendix 5: "Population to Trinitarian Church Ratios by Census Division" depicts census divisions by province and territory - east to west, showing comparative church strength by comparing the number of Trinitarian churches in each census division, as well as each division's population to Trinitarian church ratio.

5. Canada by Census Metropolitan Areas Showing Relative Trinitarian Church Strength by Population to Trinitarian Church Ratios
We now turn our attention to Canada's urban areas and depict the cities with the greatest need for new church planting. This can be accomplished with the greatest clarity by showing the population to Trinitarian church ratios of the Canadian cities most in need of new churches; in descending order in Table 5.
For a complete list of 139 census metropolitan areas in Canada with populations of over 10,000 persons showing the number of reported churches and the population to Trinitarian church ratio for each nationally from east to west, please refer to Appendix 6: "Population to Trinitarian Church Ratios for 139 Census Metropolitan Areas in Canada."

Table 5:

 "Canadian Major Cities 
in Descending Order of Need for New Church Planting"

							           (1986)   No. of    P/C
CMA Name       Province         Pop'n    Churches  Ratio
--------------------------------------------------------
QUEBEC CITY    Quebec           581905      153     3803
MONTREAL       Quebec          2866550      789     3633
LA BAIE        Quebec           156160       46     3395
TROIS-RIVERES  Quebec           122675       43     2853
TORONTO        Ontario         3399675     1443     2356
ST. JOHN'S     Newfoundland     157075       78     2014
SHERBROOKE     Quebec           127810       64     1997
CALGARY        Alberta          665840      335     1988
OTTAWA         Quebec           809375      408     1984
OSHAWA         Ontario          201490      104     1937
VANCOUVER      B.C.            1350875      727     1858
VICTORIA       B.C.             249240      149     1673
WINDSOR        Ontario          251070      163     1540
STONEY CREEK   Ontario          551545      367     1503
WINNIPEG       Manitoba         617790      424     1457
REGINA         Saskatchewan     182420      129     1414
EDMONTON       Alberta          777440      556     1398
KITCHENER      Ontario          308285      222     1389
THUNDER BAY    Ontario          120555       96     1256
HALIFAX        Nova Scotia      293065      234     1252
LONDON         Ontario          337615      274     1232
SUDBURY        Ontario          147655      128     1154
SASKATOON      Saskatchewan     197890      174     1137
NIAGRA FALLS   Ontario          339480      322     1054
KINGSTON       Ontario          118050      115     1027
MONCTON        New Brunswick    100490      106      948
CAPE BRETON    Nova Scotia      117965      125      944
ROTHESAY       New Brunswick    119885      148      810

6. Canada by Census Sub-Divisions Showing Relative Trinitarian Church Strength by Population to Church Ratios
Due to the large number of Canadian census sub-divisions we will show the 25 census sub-divisions where the greatest need of new church planting is, using Table 6.

Table 6: 

"25 Census Sub-Divisions 
Most Urgently Requiring New Church Planting"

																 P/C
Province         Census Sub-Division             Ratio
------------------------------------------------------
Quebec           COTE-SAINT-LUC                  27630
Quebec           BOISBRIAND                      14360
Quebec           ANCIENNE-LORETTE                13745
Quebec           BAIE-COMEAU                     12960
Quebec           SAINT-LEONARD                   12658
Quebec           FLEURIMONT                      12630
Quebec           CAP-ROUGE                       12100
Ontario          HUNTSVILLE                      11795
Quebec           VARENNES                        10385
Quebec           LE GARDEUR                       9230
Quebec           CANDIAC                          9095
Quebec           SAINT-AUGUSTIN-DE-DESMAURES      8895
Quebec           BELOEIL                          8855
Quebec           SAINT-BASILE-LE-GRAND            8850
Quebec           SAINT-JEAN-CHRYSOSTOME           8800
B.C.             CENTRAL OKANAGAN, SUBD. A        8415
Quebec           SAINT-RAPHAEL-DE-L'ILE-BIZARD    8385
Quebec           REPENTIGNY                       8119
Quebec           BLAINVILLE                       8088
Quebec           SAINT-EUSTACHE                   7985
Ontario          KING                             7948
Quebec           TROIS-RIVIERES-OUEST             7770
New Brunswick    SAUMAREZ                         7705
Quebec           SAINT-ANTOINE                    7690
Ontario          YARMOUTH                         7690

It is evident from even a cursory overview that the greatest needs and opportunities for new church planting await in the province of Quebec. For a more complete listing of census sub-divisions in descending order of need for new church planting the reader is referred to Appendix 7: "Census Sub-Divisions in Descending Order of Population to Trinitarian Church Ratios."

6. Canada by "Home Language" Groups Showing Relative Trinitarian Church Strength by Population-to-Church Ratios
Canada is becoming increasingly a mosaic of languages and ethnic traditions. A summary of the number of churches ministering to 48 of Canada's largest "home language" groups are depicted with their relative strength by population to Trinitarian church ratios in Table 7.

Table 7: 

"Canadian Churches and Missions by Home Language"
 
Language      Churches    Percent     Population      P/C
               (1989)     of Total      (1986)    		Ratio
-----------------------------------------------------------
ENGLISH        16981       78.8 %      17690380        1042
FRENCH          2638       12.2 %       5834955        2212
CREE              67        0.3 %         40140         599
OJIBWAY            3        0.0 %          9195        3065
INUKTITUT          1        0.0 %         17455       17455
ITALIAN           39        0.2 %        271030        6949
ROMANIAN          25        0.1 %          5875         235
PORTUGUESE        22        0.1 %        105080        4776
SPANISH           44        0.2 %         55330        1258
GERMAN            67        0.3 %        110730        1653
YIDDISH            0        0.0 %          6555      
DUTCH             35        0.2 %         13325         381
FLEMISH            1        0.0 %          1015        1015
SWEDISH            1        0.0 %          1350        1350
DANISH             2        0.0 %          1565         783
NORWEGIAN          0        0.0 %           595      
UKRAINIAN        843        3.9 %         45090          53
RUSSIAN           24        0.1 %          9640         402
MACEDONIAN         1        0.0 %          7000        7000
SERBIAN           20        0.1 %          4690         235
SERB_CROAT        30        0.1 %          1260          42
CZECH              2        0.0 %          8720        4360
SLOVAK            35        0.2 %          4790         137
POLISH            27        0.1 %         54295        2011
LATVIAN           24        0.1 %          4095         171
LITHUANIAN         8        0.0 %          8020        1003
FINNISH           22        0.1 %         10930         497
ESTONIAN          13        0.1 %          5315         409
HUNGARIAN         30        0.1 %         23295         777
GREEK             69        0.3 %         72175        1046
ARMENIAN          12        0.1 %         13515        1126
TURKIC             0        0.0 %          2540      
ARABIC            22        0.1 %         21715         987
HEBREW             0        0.0 %          2760      
PERSIAN            0        0.0 %          7605      
HINDI              1        0.0 %          9345        9345
PUNJABI            3        0.0 %         47635       15878
URDU               0        0.0 %          8120      
TAMIL              1        0.0 %          3020        3020
JAPANESE          15        0.1 %          8950         597
KOREAN            50        0.2 %         14150         283
CHINESE           92        0.4 %        229510        2495
THAI               0        0.0 %          6890      
KHMER              3        0.0 %          7840        2613
VIETNAMESE        14        0.1 %         40075        2863
INDONESIAN         2        0.0 %           725         363
TAGALOG           15        0.1 %         24995        1666
CREOLES           13        0.1 %          5985         460
OTHER            226        1.0 %        137705         609
					-----		  -------      --------        ----
CANADA         21543      100.0 %      25016970        1161

For a breakdown of language churches and missions by province and territory, readers are referred to Appendix 8: "Language Churches and Missions by Province and Territory."

Endnotes:

1  Technical programmer's notes are contained in an informal programmer's notebook and are available from Murray Moerman, 8765 Government St., Burnaby, B.C., V3N 4G9 Canada (604) 429-0761 to those interested, but are not included in the text of this dissertation. More helpful standardized technical support is available from Roy Wingerd, Dawn Ministries, Box 40969, Pasadena, CA 91114 USA (818) 398-2300.

2  Purpose Statement from "Dawn Report: Covering the 'Discipling A Whole Nation' Movement", Box 40969, Pasadena, CA: Dawn Ministries. Issue 7, June 1989. p. 2.

3  "The Church Around the World," Wheaton, Ill: Tyndale House Publishers, Inc., September 1989.